|Details1:||ON THE COHERENCE BETWEEN DYNAMICS OF THE|
WORLD FUEL CONSUMPTION AND GLOBAL
Federal Institute for Fisheries and Oceanography (VNIRO), 107140 Moscow, B.
Krasnoselskaya, 17.Russia. Email: email@example.com
Institute of the Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia.
Analysis of the long-term dynamics of World Fuel Consumption (WFC) and the
Global Temperature anomaly (dT) for the last 140 years (1961-2000) shows that
unlike the monotonously and exponentially increasing WFC, the dynamics of
global dT against the background of a linear, age-long trend, undergo quasi-cyclic
fluctuations with about 60 a year period. No true linear correlation has taken place
between the dT and WFC dynamics in the last century.
Spectral analysis of reconstructed temperature for the last 1420 years and
instrumentally measured for the last 140 years global dT shows that dominant
period for its variations for the last 1000 years lies in the 50-60 years interval.
Modelling of roughly 60-years cyclic dT changes suggest that the observed rise
of dT will flatten in the next 5-10 years, and that we might expect a lowering of
dT by nearly 1-0.15°C to the end of the 2020s.
Keywords: global warming, fuel consumption, global climate variations, spectral
analysis, time-frequency analysis.
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